Simple illustration of managing uncertainty

A good friend recently came into some money and wants to invest it all in his life-long dream – Mr Whimsy’s Ice Cream Emporium!  He turns to you for help.  He says he would make £20,000 over a 100-day summer if he sells 100 ice creams a day at £2 each, and believes he can make almost double that if everything goes well.  You point out there are a number of uncertainties that need to be assessed.


Using Risk Insights Explorer, the only app with 4D Analytics, you offer to calculate the uncertainties for Mr Whimsy.

4D Analytics is a revolution that combines scenario thinking and uncertainty management with advanced graph algorithms to identify, connect and visualise risk.  Business leaders and programme professionals can see and explore their risks in ways they have never been able to before.

Using Risk Insights Explorer with 4D Analytics you explain to Mr Whimsy that given the uncertainty factors he should expect sales to be around £16,000, however they could be as low as £3,000 or as high as £27,000 and he should invest accordingly.


So the decision to invest in the the ice cream business turned out to be a good one, however by working through a simple, plausible scenario-based assessment, the decison was based on sound principles that informed the decision, and presented both he potential risks and opportunities inherent in the venture. The assessment, grounded in a quantitative approach, evaluated key variables and the financial implications of the best-case, worst-case, and expected outcomes. This insight-driven approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks, ensuring that the decision was made with a clear-eyed view of the uncertainties.