A Simple Project Model

A friend was recently asked, “How many days will it take to finish this project?” by her boss who is keen to finish the current project and to get started on the next. My friend explained there were a number of uncertainties:

  • Annual holidays
  • Errors in final testing
  • Contractor leaves project early
  • External events
  • Stakeholder sign-off

They presented the information in the graphic below as a crude but credible evaluation and estimate of the number of days required.

Her boss was pleased to have at last been given numbers she could work with and though 55 days seemed high initially, the transparency of the approach meant she understood why this should be expected. Contingency plans have since been developed and her boss is managing expectations on both projects.

A dataset supporting the example is available on the website, contact me for access and to learn more about Risk Insights Explorer.

Since the model only considers days lost it is very simple
Cumulative impact graph
Simple range impact graph